Afghanistan's Historic Semifinal Clash Against Unbeaten South Africa

Afghanistan has defied expectations to reach their first-ever semifinal in an ICC event, set to face an unbeaten South Africa eager to rewrite their winless history in World Cup semifinals. This deep dive explores the key tactics and matchups that could influence the outcome of the first semi-final in Tarouba.

Selection Dilemmas

Throughout the tournament, South Africa has rotated just 12 players, interchanging Tabriaz Shamsi and Ottneil Baartman based on conditions and opponents. Shamsi, who has played only three games, earned Player of the Match honours twice. However, with Afghanistan's batting lineup predominantly featuring right-handers, Baartman's extra pace might be more advantageous. An unconventional move could involve including left-arm spinner Bjorn Fortuin. Afghanistan might consider replacing Karim Janat with left-handers Hazratullah Zazai or Najibullah Zadran to strengthen their middle order.

Conditions in Tarouba

The Brian Lara Cricket Academy in Tarouba has hosted Group C games, favouring bowlers significantly. However, the dominance of bowlers should be viewed with caution as three of these matches involved either Uganda or PNG, two of the weaker batting lineups. In the game between West Indies and New Zealand, the hosts defended 149 despite the dew. Fast bowlers have taken 38 wickets at an average of 12.16, with 18 in the Powerplay, averaging 9.61 and striking every 14.1 balls (ER 4.09). The semifinal is expected to be played on a fresh pitch.

Afghanistan has preferred setting targets, winning all four matches when batting first, while both defeats occurred in run chases. The game will be played under lights, an advantage for Afghanistan, who have played nine of their last ten T20Is in the Caribbean at night. South Africa, in contrast, has played only two night games out of their last 15 in this region. Afghanistan boasts a spotless 5-0 win-loss record on the most bowler-friendly wickets in the West Indies this tournament: Providence, Arnos Vale, and Tarouba.

Key Matchups: De Kock vs Afghanistan's New Ball Bowlers

Quinton de Kock has been pivotal for South Africa in the Powerplay, especially in the Caribbean leg, scoring 136 runs at a strike rate of 168. He faces a challenging task against Fazalhaq Farooqi and Naveen-ul-Haq, leading Powerplay wicket-takers with nine and eight scalps, respectively. The new ball has swung notably under lights in Tarouba, and Naveen’s around-the-wicket angle aims to cramp De Kock outside off. Naveen has bowled 16 deliveries to left-handers in the Powerplay, yielding five dismissals, all from around the wicket. Farooqi's inswinger to left-handers has troubled De Kock before, posing a significant challenge.

South Africa's Middle Order vs Afghanistan's Spinners

Tarouba is one of the most spin-friendly pitches, exemplified by Gudakesh Motie's delivery that bowled Daryll Mitchell. Heinrich Klaasen is South Africa’s best spinner in white-ball cricket over the last 18 months, averaging 87 and striking at 143 against spin. His battle against Rashid Khan, the standout spinner of the tournament, will be crucial. Klaasen has scored 64 runs off 34 balls from Rashid in T20s (including MLC) for two dismissals, but Rashid has dismissed him in their last three encounters.

David Miller, the only left-hander in South Africa's middle order, has struggled against spin, averaging 17 and striking for 115 in T20s this year. Four of his five dismissals in this World Cup have come against spin, and against Afghanistan’s spinners, he has been dismissed seven times in 73 balls, scoring only 78 runs.

Expect Maharaj in the Powerplay

Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran have scored 58% of Afghanistan’s runs in this tournament, setting strong foundations in each of the four games they batted first. Aiden Markram showcased tactical flexibility against West Indies by bowling four overs of his off-spin upfront against two left-handers, keeping Kagiso Rabada out of the attack until the 18th over.

Keshav Maharaj has been exceptional in this World Cup, with none of his four-over spells costing more than 27 runs. His control and use of the crosswind have resulted in nine wickets at 6.08 per over, all against right-handers. Gurbaz has frequently been dismissed by left-arm orthodox bowlers, while Zadran has struggled, suggesting Maharaj could effectively tie them down.

Nortje to Exploit Afghanistan's Middle Order Weakness

While Gurbaz and Zadran lead Afghanistan’s run charts, the rest of their middle order has significantly underperformed, averaging just 13.24. In four of their six matches, Gurbaz and Zadran have batted through half the innings, leaving the middle order fewer balls to face. Should they be dismissed early, Afghanistan's middle order will face South Africa's formidable attack, the best in the middle overs.

The spin trio of Shamsi, Maharaj, and Markram have taken 13 wickets at a rate of 14.8 balls per dismissal between overs seven and 15, while their pacers have ten scalps at an average of 18.90, with Anrich Nortje claiming eight. Nortje’s high pace and variable bounce could unsettle Afghanistan’s middle order, traditionally weak against such bowling.

Conclusion

As Afghanistan gears up to face South Africa in their historic semifinal clash, the outcome will hinge on key tactical decisions and critical matchups. Both teams have their strengths, and adapting to the conditions in Tarouba will be vital for success.