As we reach the midway point of the T20 World Cup 2024, the competition for the Super Eight spots is heating up, with 20 group-stage matches still to be played. Unexpected results, upsets, and inclement weather have put several top-seeded teams—Pakistan, England, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka—in vulnerable positions. These teams are now relying on favourable outcomes in other matches to keep their hopes alive. Oman, on the other hand, is the only team across all groups that has been eliminated from the Super Eight contention after the game between Scotland and Oman on June 9. Here’s the current status of each group:
Group A
Upcoming Matches:
- Pakistan vs Canada
- USA vs India
- USA vs Ireland
- India vs Canada
- Pakistan vs Ireland
After two matches each, India and co-hosts USA lead the group and need just one more win to secure their spots in the Super Eight provided Canada loses another point. There’s an outside chance for a three-way tie at six points if India defeats the USA, the USA beats Ireland, and Canada wins both its matches against India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s campaign is hanging by a thread; they must win against both Canada and Ireland. Additionally, Pakistan needs the winner of the India vs USA match to also win their final game, while the loser must drop their last match. If these conditions are met, Pakistan will tie on four points with other teams, making Net Run Rate (NRR) the tiebreaker.
Group B
Upcoming Matches:
- Australia vs Namibia
- England vs Oman
- Namibia vs England
- Australia vs Scotland
This group, featuring three Associate teams, is in a delicate balance with Scotland currently leading. Australia’s next match against Namibia could secure their advancement if they win, which would also eliminate Namibia. Defending champions England, after losing to Australia, are in a precarious position. Another loss or even a washout could see them miss out on advancing if Australia gains just one more point from their remaining matches against Scotland or Namibia.
A plausible outcome for this group is Scotland losing to Australia and England winning both their games against Namibia and Oman. This scenario would result in a tie with Scotland on five points, where the progression will depend on NRR. Currently, Scotland’s NRR is significantly better than England’s by +3.965, equating to around a 110-run difference. If Scotland loses to Australia by 50 runs, England would need to win their matches against Namibia and Oman by a combined margin of 59 runs to surpass Scotland’s NRR, assuming a score of 160 in each game. Scotland’s final game against Australia gives them the advantage of knowing exactly what they need to qualify.
Group C
Upcoming Matches:
- West Indies vs New Zealand
- Afghanistan vs PNG
- New Zealand vs Uganda
- New Zealand vs PNG
- West Indies vs Afghanistan
Group C, often dubbed the "Group of Death," has lived up to its reputation, particularly for New Zealand. Afghanistan and co-hosts West Indies are currently in the best positions and need just one win from their remaining matches to likely secure their advancement due to their superior NRR. Despite New Zealand having played only one match, their heavy defeat leaves them with little margin for error. To advance, New Zealand must win all three remaining matches and hope Afghanistan beats West Indies. This would lead to all three teams being tied on six points, with NRR determining who moves forward.
Group D
Upcoming Matches:
- South Africa vs Bangladesh
- Sri Lanka vs Nepal
- Bangladesh vs Netherlands
- South Africa vs Nepal
- Bangladesh vs Nepal
- Sri Lanka vs Netherlands
Group D remains the most competitive, with all five teams still in the hunt for a Super Eight spot. A win for South Africa against Bangladesh on Monday, June 10, would likely secure their place in the next round. Sri Lanka, currently in the weakest position, needs to win their matches against both the Netherlands and Nepal, hope South Africa remains unbeaten, and Nepal defeats Bangladesh. This scenario would leave Sri Lanka tied on four points with the winner of the Netherlands vs Bangladesh match, relying on NRR to progress. Alternatively, if South Africa finishes unbeaten with eight points and three other teams end up with four points each, the last spot will be decided by NRR, potentially eliminating either Sri Lanka or Nepal if they fail to secure any wins.